[J.P. Morgan Report] Moving Past Peak Fear and the Explosive Rise of the 'OpenClaw' AI Agent Trend

Subtitle: Geopolitical Risk Indicators Hit Historic Highs as Cloud Infrastructure Finds a Massive New Revenue Model

Original Report Date: March 10, 2026

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3-Line Summary

• Passing 'Peak Fear': J.P. Morgan (JPM) diagnoses that geopolitical risk indicators, such as the Brent crude risk premium, have reached historic extremes. Statements from President Trump hinting at an end to the war, alongside G7 discussions of a massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release, may inject much-needed relief into the market.

• Anomalous Fund Flows (Gold Outflows vs. Korean Equity Inflows): While investors are fleeing to safe-haven MMFs, it is not a 'total capitulation.' Notably, Gold ETFs suffered a record $6.3 billion outflow, whereas South Korean equity ETFs witnessed a record $1.6 billion inflow—with a third of it heavily concentrated in 3x leveraged products.

• OpenClaw and the Evolution of Cloud Monetization: "OpenClaw," an open-source personal AI agent that autonomously executes tasks, has emerged as a core theme in Asia. Its staggering consumption of up to 100 million tokens daily per heavy user is poised to generate explosive cash flows for infrastructure giants like Tencent and UCloud.

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In-Depth Report Analysis

In stark contrast to Goldman Sachs, which warned against excessive relief and advised fading the rally, J.P. Morgan (JPM) presented a nuanced and somewhat contrarian analysis in its March 10 report. While acknowledging that the market is currently in an extreme de-risking phase, JPM suggests that we may have paradoxically passed the point of 'Peak Fear'.

Furthermore, JPM advises investors to look beyond the messy macroeconomic environment and focus on a powerful new AI trend emerging out of Asia: 'OpenClaw'. Let's dive deep into JPM's perspective on the hidden dynamics of the current market and the new investment opportunities unfolding.

1. Geopolitical Risk: Have We Already Passed 'Peak Fear'?

Equity markets are currently hyper-sensitive to news of the Middle East conflict. However, JPM highlights two massive developments that could provide decisive relief to the market.

First, President Trump has hinted at a political off-ramp, stating that "the war will end soon."

Second, the G7 is seriously weighing the release of 300 to 400 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to counter oil supply disruptions. This dwarfs the 240 million barrels released during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. It is a formidable safety net capable of covering approximately 20 to 25 days of total global supply, even in the event of a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to JPM's quantitative models, the 'Geopolitical Risk Index' currently felt by the market is nearing the highs of September 2001 (during the 9/11 attacks), and the 'risk premium' baked into Brent crude has reached its highest level since 1998. In financial markets, when psychological indicators hit such historical extremes, it paradoxically implies that bad news is fully priced in, and a rebound may be imminent. However, JPM cautions that the actual military responses of Israel and Iran remain wildcards. Investors should maintain a cautious approach, keeping a close eye on the risk of targets expanding to oil production and tech infrastructure.

2. The Movement of Smart Money: Gold's Betrayal and Leveraged Bets on Korean Equities

How is institutional capital moving amidst this extreme chaos? According to JPM data, investors aggressively pulled money out of equity and corporate bond ETFs last week, seeking refuge in safe-haven assets like Money Market Funds (MMFs) and US Treasuries.

However, JPM does not view this as the final 'Capitulation' stage where investors abandon the market entirely. Instead, they interpret it as a portfolio 'realignment' toward lower-volatility defensive sectors (Utilities, Consumer Staples). During this shift, JPM identified two highly anomalous and fascinating fund flows.

• Record Outflows from Gold ETFs: When inflation and war fears peak, capital naturally flocks to gold, the ultimate safe haven. Yet, last week, Gold ETFs experienced a record-breaking $6.3 billion in outflows.

• Record Inflows into South Korean Equity ETFs: Conversely, South Korean equity ETFs—which took a direct hit from the spike in Asian market volatility—saw a massive influx of $1.6 billion. Even more astonishing, a third of this inflow was concentrated in high-risk 3x leveraged products. This strongly suggests that, amidst extreme fear, global "smart money" is aggressively betting on a sharp V-shaped recovery in the Korean market, driven by its oversold status and solid fundamentals.

3. The Signal of Explosive Monetization: AI Agent 'OpenClaw'

While macro noise dominates headlines, JPM identifies 'OpenClaw' as the core theme capable of driving a powerful rally in Asian markets. OpenClaw is not just a chatbot that returns text answers. It is an 'open-source personal AI agent' that constantly runs in the background, autonomously planning and executing complex workflows (e.g., aggregating data, opening programs, sending emails). Upgraded to version 3.8, it features drastically improved contextual memory, cementing its status as a market game-changer.

The real reason financial markets are euphoric about OpenClaw lies in its 'overwhelming monetization potential'. With traditional chatbot models, user token consumption was relatively low compared to monthly subscription fees, making it difficult for cloud infrastructure companies to generate significant profits against their massive capital expenditures.

However, an AI agent that autonomously and continuously searches, iterates, and executes tasks consumes tokens on an entirely different scale. JPM estimates that a heavy OpenClaw user consumes 30 million to 100 million tokens per day. Translated into premium AI model API pricing, this equates to daily costs of $900 to $3,000. These agents are burning through what used to be a monthly subscription fee in just a few hours.

Ultimately, this exponential surge in token consumption translates directly into explosive cash flow for cloud services and computing infrastructure providers. JPM highlights Tencent and UCloud as the biggest direct beneficiaries of this trend. Tencent, in particular, is highly praised for proactively integrating OpenClaw templates into its cloud platform—a brilliant "lock-in" strategy that tethers the rapidly growing base of AI agent developers and users tightly to its ecosystem.

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StockHub Insight & Comments

When the broader market is paralyzed by panic selling, global IBs turn to hard data. As JPM's analysis shows, geopolitical fear indices hitting 9/11 levels often signal the 'climax' of bad news. The influx of $1.6 billion into South Korean equities—armed with 3x leverage—is no coincidence. The old adage "buy when there's blood in the streets" is already being executed by institutional investors.

Simultaneously, amidst macroeconomic turmoil, the innovation transforming Big Tech fundamentals pushes forward. The dawn of the AI agent era, proven by 'OpenClaw', goes beyond mere technological novelty. It signifies the completion of a flawless business model where AI infrastructure companies can finally rake in 'massive cash flows'. Now is the time for bold, strategic interest in core value-chain beneficiaries like Tencent.