[Goldman Sachs Report] AI-Driven Export Surprise and the Return of K-Semiconductors

Subtitle: HBM Boom Leads Record Trade Surplus: Outlook for SK Hynix & Samsung

Original Report Date: March 2, 2026

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📌 3-Line Summary

- Export Surprise: South Korea's exports in February jumped 29.0% year-over-year, beating market estimates and achieving a record trade surplus of $15.5 billion. This remarkable performance was almost entirely driven by the semiconductor sector.
- The Power of Proxy Data: To track undisclosed HBM shipment volumes, Goldman Sachs analyzed the import volume of key Japanese chemical materials heading to 'Icheon/Cheongju' and 'Hwaseong/Pyeongtaek', mathematically proving the explosive growth of HBM.
- Investment Strategy: Fueled by Big Tech's aggressive AI server investments, memory exports soared by 262%. Goldman Sachs applied an 'AI Premium' and maintained a positive outlook for SK Hynix (Target: KRW 1,200,000) and Samsung Electronics (Target: KRW 205,000).

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📖 In-Depth Report Analysis

Goldman Sachs evaluated that the "earnings surprise" in South Korea's February exports, which far exceeded market expectations, is fundamentally driven by the global Big Tech companies' investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Let's delve into what specific data Goldman uses to track this trend and how it translates into investment perspectives for individual companies.

■ 1. Semiconductors Single-Handedly Drive 'Export Surprise' and Record Trade Surplus

South Korea's exports in February increased by 29.0% year-over-year, significantly outperforming the Bloomberg consensus. Excluding the temporary base effect caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, the underlying export momentum has actually strengthened. As a result, the trade surplus reached a historic high of $15.5 billion.

The undisputed protagonist of this achievement is semiconductors. Despite the sluggishness of traditional non-IT exports, semiconductor exports surged 22.5% month-over-month, single-handedly accounting for "100%" of the total export growth in February. Notably, exports to the US surged, illustrating that AI-related components are being heavily absorbed by the US market.

■ 2. Behind the 262% Spike in Memory Exports: The 'AI Server' Excess Demand

In stark contrast to other major tech products, memory semiconductor exports recorded a phenomenal 262% year-over-year growth—the highest level since April 2012. NAND chip exports also skyrocketed by 378%. Goldman Sachs pinpointed the cause as "excess demand for AI servers driven by aggressive and preemptive hardware infrastructure investments by Big Tech companies."

■ 3. Analyst's Secret: Tracking HBM Exports with 'Proxy Data'

Since companies do not disclose exact monthly HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) sales volumes, Goldman Sachs utilized the import volume of critical Japanese chemical materials used in HBM packaging as 'proxy data.'

- SK Hynix (Icheon/Cheongju): Imports of Japanese epoxide resins to these production bases increased by 80% year-over-year.
- Samsung Electronics (Hwaseong/Pyeongtaek): Imports of Japanese plastic films heading to these areas increased by 87% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs explained that the explosive increase in the import of these raw materials shows a very strong correlation with the HBM shipment volumes, serving as definitive proof that HBM production is running at full capacity.

■ 4. Why Are Other IT Components Sluggish?

- Displays (-4%): OLED held up well, but LCD exports plummeted 14% due to declining demand for automotive panels.
- Li-ion Batteries (-0.4%): Weakness persists due to slowing EV demand in the US and intensifying competition in Europe.
- MLCC (+0.5%): Demand for AI servers remains solid, but overall export value saw little change, halting previous high-growth streaks.

■ 5. Goldman Sachs' Conclusion: Focus on Semiconductors Riding the AI Premium

Based on this thorough analysis of export data, Goldman Sachs presented strong positive outlooks for the top two Korean semiconductor giants.

- SK Hynix (Buy Rating / Target: KRW 1,200,000): Evaluated as fully deserving a '30% AI Premium' as the absolute leader in the HBM market.
- Samsung Electronics (Buy Rating / Target: KRW 205,000): Expected to strongly benefit from the broader market recovery due to its large share in legacy memory alongside HBM.

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💡 StockHub Insight & Comments

Recently, domestic and global stock markets have experienced significant declines due to the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, including the armed conflict involving Iran, causing investor sentiment to freeze. However, during times of macroeconomic fear, rather than succumbing to panic selling, it is crucial to focus on the solid fundamentals and hard 'data' of individual industries, as demonstrated by this Goldman Sachs report.

The tenacity of analysts who track customs data for 'Japanese chemical materials' entering specific factory locations of SK Hynix and Samsung to mathematically prove the HBM boom offers profound implications for us investors.

For StockHub subscribers, rather than being shaken by the market drop caused by geopolitical noise, it may be worth considering this correction as an opportunity to carefully plan a data-driven strategy. Incrementally approaching high-quality K-semiconductor companies, whose growth is undeniably backed by solid export indicators, could be a sound approach.

🚨 Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only, based on global IB reports, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. The final decision and responsibility for any investment lie solely with the investor.