[ING & Citi Report] Navigating Market Direction Amidst AI Noise: Key Checks on Equities, FX, and Commodities

Subtitle: The 'Winner-Takes-All' AI Market and USD/KRW Targeting the 1,420s

Original Report Date: February 23 (Citi), 24 (ING), 2026

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📌 3-Line Summary

- Equities: Despite fears of massive AI-driven job losses, the S&P 500 is holding its ground in a tight range, with all eyes strictly on the upcoming earnings report from 'AI Winner' Nvidia.
- FX Market: Supported by strong Asian equity markets and South Korea's robust export data, the USD/KRW exchange rate has ample room to fall to 1,425 (Won appreciation) by late March.
- Commodities & Macro: The dollar remains mixed as it awaits employment data and Fed commentary, while the commodity market is seeing heightened volatility driven by three main variables: AI, tariffs, and geopolitical risks.

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📖 In-Depth Report Analysis

Even amidst various macroeconomic noises weighing on the market, the search for clear direction is busy. ING and Citi diagnosed that the equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets are all strongly influenced by the 'AI theme' and 'geopolitical/tariff uncertainties.'

■ 1. AI 'Winners vs. Losers' and the S&P 500's Breathing Room

Behind the recent weakness in the stock market lies investor fear regarding 'AI losers.' A recent report by Citrini Research warning that AI-induced mass unemployment could strike professional services, including banking, has dampened market sentiment.

However, ING clarified that this concern has not dealt a decisive blow to the market. The S&P 500 index continues to show support within a narrow 6,775-7,000 range. Instead, the market is biding its time for Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, focusing heavily on identifying the true 'winners' that will lead the AI trend.

■ 2. K-Semiconductor's Rally: Asian Market Strength and USD/KRW 1,425 Forecast

Despite global market volatility, Asian stock markets with a high semiconductor weighting, such as South Korea and Taiwan, are showing distinct strength. They are gaining continuous upward momentum as investors concentrate funds into the 'AI winner' category.

ING positively evaluated the strong performance of South Korean exporters (driven by robust early February export data) and the reflexive benefits from US tariff rulings. Combined with the South Korean government's measures to repatriate capital, ING forecasts that the USD/KRW exchange rate has enough room to decline to 1,425 (appreciation of the Won's value) by the end of March.

■ 3. The Lost Dollar (DXY): Employment Data and Fed Remarks Hold the Key

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing strong resistance at the 98.00 level, showing a mixed trend within the 97.50-98.00 range. Finding broad upward momentum immediately seems difficult.

ING pointed to employment data as the variable that will determine the dollar's future direction. Given Fed Governor Christopher Waller's recent comment that January's strong employment data risks being revised downward, if subsequent job data comes in weak, the dollar's value could suffer a minor decline. Conversely, a slight improvement in consumer sentiment indicators is not expected to significantly alter the dollar's trajectory.

■ 4. The Fate of the Pound: All Eyes on BoE Governor Bailey

Currently, the most interesting currency in the FX market is the British Pound. Parliamentary testimonies from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers could determine whether there will be a rate cut in March.

With hawks and doves sharply divided, ING focused on the remarks of Governor Andrew Bailey, who holds the casting vote. If he provides a positive signal for a March rate cut, the market will begin pricing in an aggressive total cut of 50bp or more for this year. In this scenario, the EUR/GBP exchange rate, currently trapped in a box range, could rise to 0.8800.

■ 5. Three Variables of the Commodity Cycle: AI, Tariffs, and Geopolitics

Citi Research diagnosed that macroeconomic uncertainty is maximizing not only in equities and FX but also in the commodity market. Tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and the AI theme—which is exploding power demand—are increasing the price volatility of major commodities like gold, oil, copper, and aluminum. The core playbook for future commodity investments will depend on how one predicts the direction of these three keywords.

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💡 StockHub Insight & Comments

With Nvidia's earnings announcement just around the corner, global capital is leaving behind the fear of 'AI losers' and focusing intensely on the fundamentals of 'AI winners' like semiconductors. It is highly encouraging that the South Korean stock market and the value of the Won are receiving positive evaluations from foreign investment banks, driven by powerful export momentum.

For StockHub subscribers, this is an opportune time to consider a balanced expansion in domestic demand stocks that can benefit from the declining USD/KRW exchange rate (Won appreciation), alongside the K-semiconductor sector, which continues to lead the global market.